Le Monde published the February 12 a very informative interview Patrick Artus (director of economic studies Natixis, a member of the Circle of economist and professor at the Ecole Polytechnique.) conditions of a real recovery are not met .
Excerpts from the interview:
" Q: Is the crisis over?
A: I do not think so. The companies continue to divest, household consumption and benefits the growth of imports last quarter 2009 is due to a technical factor transitional any stocking. The spontaneous recovery of the economy will be much later than usual because we are not in a normal cyclical sequence. "
and more further:
" Q: Credit can leave?
A:" The demand for credit, plunging right now, is unlikely to restart quickly. Everyone is in debt and the recession was melted together and the real estate and financial wealth. The United States has lost 35% of their wealth and the euro area, 25%.
In a situation where there is much poorer, the natural tendency is to save more. I do not think the credit recovery until 2012 at least, not more to a rebound in investment. For companies need to reinvest their capacity to use should resume their normal level, around 85%. Yet because of the recession, they are 10 or 12 points below.
The only small hope lies in the fact that we do not build enough in France and that housing starts are expected to restart a bit. But the next two years, it lacks the mechanisms in France, usually, make a recovery. "
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