Monday, March 15, 2010

Thank You Notes After Funeral Topastor

GEAB 43 believes that France is among the 8 most dangerous sovereign risks that Greece

The GEAB in Focus Issue 43 March 2010 estimated that France is in 7th place of the "Top eight sovereign risks more dangerous than Greece . Preview

GEAB 43:
"
As our team had the opportunity to repeat regularly, illustrating it with many examples, no one today can not trust the macroeconomic statistics Economic Western states (52). We have therefore chosen to focus on this aspect that drives the financial markets and dealing a factor measurement remains fairly reliable (53).

To classify countries, we included three factors: the percentage of deficit to GDP ratio in 2009 and 2010, net borrowing induced by absolute value and the likelihood for supervised the evolution of the deficit horizon 2012/2013. The first two factors, quantifiable (Sources: National accounts, Eurostat and OECD), determine the ranking and the third factor determines the color code of the country, namely: red =
trend towards worsening , orange = stabilizing trend , green = improving trend , or in other words, red = will remain in this list by 2012/2013 and probably climb in the rankings , orange = will remain in the list and green = will probably out of this list.
[...]
Sort of the most dangerous at least dangerous, the eight countries whose sovereign risk is more important than that of Greece are:
  • 1. U.S.
  • 2. UK
  • 3. Ireland
  • 4. Netherlands
  • 5. Japan
  • 6. Spain
  • 7. France
  • 8. Portugal
There is incidentally found in the rankings three of the country (with two in mind) which, since 2006, our team had stressed the high exposure to the global systemic crisis: U.S., UK and Spain. Like what, phase after phase of the crisis (real estate, banking, economy and public finances now), some countries see their credibility and wealth systematically eroded. Indeed, this process of erosion continues, which leads directly to economic collapse, social and monetary, which is at the heart of the phase dislocation géopolitique globale et dont Etats-Unis et Royaume-Uni sont les victimes par excellence.

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